RBI has not been much appraised off late by all and sundry about its role in capping inflation [let’s leave curbing it alone for a while], making yesterday a little cautious.
A 25 bps hike each in the short-term lending and borrowing rates and CRR [now 6%] to suck out about $ 2.5 Bn liquidity but cautiously not enough to corner borrowing assuring growth impetus for the industry. This seemed in line with street’s expectation showing a rather flatish response [most were happy going by flat is higher than a dip]. Further, 25 bps hike also made for repo [now 5.25%] and rev. repo [3.75%] and bank rate remains the same 6%.
As for prospects, the Central Bank foresees growth projections at an optimistic 8% for the f.y. and 2010 GDP growth per expectation shows between 7.2 to 7.5% and inflation expectations reach 5.5% for the yr and medium term at 3%.
All said and done, though conservative the policy looks good per dilemma between RBI’s inflationary expectations vis-à-vis those of the MoF. With demand building up and supply’s under pressure the 25 bps hike looks welcomed but against the inflation story a conservative 50 bps looked in the making- catch 22 indeed......now you know where from Hamlet got the "to be or not to be is the question".
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Monday, April 19, 2010
When SEBI gets Savvy
Not just the investors but the markets at large appreciate SEBI as it came up with a few most rational reg moves on the disclosures and time-lines front....
Listed Companies now need to disclose Quarterly results within 45 days of end of a quarter as against anything upto 60 days or even for- ever that a lot of Companies took to come up with Quarterly numbers.
Further, 45 days for as at Half year end B/S and bi-annual Cash flows to be out for the benefit of investors' judgements alongwith annual audited financials to be out within 60 days of yr end.
The regime only gets better with IPOs to be listed with in 12 days as against the earlier 22 from the date of close of the offer to mitigate market fluctuations risks for bidders.
So also for MFs, NFO duration reduced to half and only for 15 days for Schemes to re-open for on- going transactions.
Issures [Cos and Fund Houses] have to provide ASBA facility compulsorily to QIBs as well.
While the new improved time-lines for disclosures would keep investors best informed to take better risks adjusted calls, the offerings related eager moves suit the liquidity of investors better.
SEBI off-late seems to gotten v. savvy [ read ever more sensitive] towards investors' interests.... for good, so far.
Listed Companies now need to disclose Quarterly results within 45 days of end of a quarter as against anything upto 60 days or even for- ever that a lot of Companies took to come up with Quarterly numbers.
Further, 45 days for as at Half year end B/S and bi-annual Cash flows to be out for the benefit of investors' judgements alongwith annual audited financials to be out within 60 days of yr end.
The regime only gets better with IPOs to be listed with in 12 days as against the earlier 22 from the date of close of the offer to mitigate market fluctuations risks for bidders.
So also for MFs, NFO duration reduced to half and only for 15 days for Schemes to re-open for on- going transactions.
Issures [Cos and Fund Houses] have to provide ASBA facility compulsorily to QIBs as well.
While the new improved time-lines for disclosures would keep investors best informed to take better risks adjusted calls, the offerings related eager moves suit the liquidity of investors better.
SEBI off-late seems to gotten v. savvy [ read ever more sensitive] towards investors' interests.... for good, so far.
Monday, April 5, 2010
As Q4 Ends…..
Extending the story QoQ, positivity of people towards Q4 numbers and 2010 projections marginal sees an increase and all seem ears hopeful of a good earnings cycle despite a slow run upwards globally and inflationary pressures.
Indicators look green with global recovery and rising sales…. Hopes are too see a clearer picture vis-à-vis past few quarters where numbers carried a taint of miser expenditures.
These views show consensus across onlookers for commodities and consumer durables, specially the auto space. As for services except IT that recovers demand and sees newer/ smaller players, the picture looks bleak with telecom getting competitive and volatile by the day in spite of consistent growth in sales. Rising infra and realty activities boosts construction space to encourage cements to see increasing demand alongwith base metals.
The ambit that still worries could be banking with rising NPAs and low credit take-off despite recovery and FMCGs getting competitive amidst inflation steeps.
All in all an optimistic quarter end with hopfully even more optimistic numbers...
Indicators look green with global recovery and rising sales…. Hopes are too see a clearer picture vis-à-vis past few quarters where numbers carried a taint of miser expenditures.
These views show consensus across onlookers for commodities and consumer durables, specially the auto space. As for services except IT that recovers demand and sees newer/ smaller players, the picture looks bleak with telecom getting competitive and volatile by the day in spite of consistent growth in sales. Rising infra and realty activities boosts construction space to encourage cements to see increasing demand alongwith base metals.
The ambit that still worries could be banking with rising NPAs and low credit take-off despite recovery and FMCGs getting competitive amidst inflation steeps.
All in all an optimistic quarter end with hopfully even more optimistic numbers...
Monday, March 22, 2010
Dramatic Antonyms
When Going gets tough, the Fed Gets going …It been over a year and a half since all have been looking out for [some are watching out for] the Fed Res to bring in the new regulatory regime looking to rescue the US economy and the lot of others that the US effects, from major collapses extending the ‘too big to fail’ notion.
Senator Dodd’s new proposal got to the table a bill to empower Fed Res over all major FIs vis-à-vis just banks, against which oversight assets of about $50 billion will be delegated from Fed Res to other federal agencies. And the US President’s office would name the Fed Res President…. [think jazz like Independence of a regulating agency or Non politicizing them?.... too bad, American law makers think otherwise, under the pretext that tax payers don’t end up funding bail outs]. FYI… the Dodd Bill is widely opposed by both the Treasury and Industry for obvious reasons.
While this happens in the Yankee land, in India just a few years ago oversight of a lot of businesses for FI which rested in the Central Bank moved to the Market Regulator. Down stream flow to the Dodd bill.
Instance 2, another proposed bill to curb Prop trading by FHCs, thank fully yet a bill and so far not feasible was last heard about this. This one again, wasn’t too welcomed by the Industry and was seen as a defensive move.
About the same time, our side of the globe, a lot of firms evaluate more active prop trading that has a financially lucrative taint and authorities don’t mind.
Moral of the story, the minds at opposite sides of the globe think opposite, owing to either fundamental differences in the kind of economies that the two of these are…. or is it basic difference in their standing on the growth/ development curve. It continues to be you go north I go south story.
Senator Dodd’s new proposal got to the table a bill to empower Fed Res over all major FIs vis-à-vis just banks, against which oversight assets of about $50 billion will be delegated from Fed Res to other federal agencies. And the US President’s office would name the Fed Res President…. [think jazz like Independence of a regulating agency or Non politicizing them?.... too bad, American law makers think otherwise, under the pretext that tax payers don’t end up funding bail outs]. FYI… the Dodd Bill is widely opposed by both the Treasury and Industry for obvious reasons.
While this happens in the Yankee land, in India just a few years ago oversight of a lot of businesses for FI which rested in the Central Bank moved to the Market Regulator. Down stream flow to the Dodd bill.
Instance 2, another proposed bill to curb Prop trading by FHCs, thank fully yet a bill and so far not feasible was last heard about this. This one again, wasn’t too welcomed by the Industry and was seen as a defensive move.
About the same time, our side of the globe, a lot of firms evaluate more active prop trading that has a financially lucrative taint and authorities don’t mind.
Moral of the story, the minds at opposite sides of the globe think opposite, owing to either fundamental differences in the kind of economies that the two of these are…. or is it basic difference in their standing on the growth/ development curve. It continues to be you go north I go south story.
Sunday, March 14, 2010
High on Speed.... Higher on Drama
Last evening marked a more eventful than expected beginning to this Formula 1 season.
The Bahrain Grand Prix being the onset of this year's World Championship turned out to mark numerous must watch moments.... for the ones who lacked time... Thank me...
The drama on the track begin as soon as turn 1 of Lap 1 when Webber’s [Red Bull] engine emitted clouds spinning Kubica [Renault] and Sutil [Force India] out of the points spots.
If that was not enough, Lap 2: Chandhok [HRT] crashed out of the race. Followed by BMW Sauber not making it to the end alongwith Debutants Glock and Di Grassi [Virgin] grace a` mechanical failures. The list continued with Petrov [Renault] facing a suspension problem which was detected during tyre stop at Lap 13.
Vettel starting at pole maintained an unbeatable lead till lap 34 going to dust that late owing to a spark plug failure ,this was when the face of the race changed with F. Alonso [started 2nd on the grid] finally overtaking Red Bull with fastest lap record ~ 1 min 58 secs followed by team mate Massa [started 3rd on the grid] following suit and finally Hamilton [started 4th] making a third place finish for Mc Lauren.
Vettle till lap 49 despite machine’s give up maintained his position 4 against Roseburg [Merc] finishing 5th [started 5] and Schumi finishing 6 [started 7th].
The final score Board showed:
Ferrari with 43 points
McLaren with 21,
Mercedes GP with 18
Red Bull with 16.
As for Racers: Alonso: 25 points, Massa: 18, Hamilton: 15, Vettel: 12, Rosberg: 10 and Schumacher: 8.
After the dramatic Bahrain GP, eyes are set already southwards for the Aussie GP [March 26-28].
- The God of F1, Schumacher made a come back from his 3 year old semi-retirement with Mercedes Benz GP Petronas.
- The Track was more complex with 8 new corners added reducing the laps to 49 [circuit length ~ 6.29 km and race distance ~ 308.41 km].
- And the Much talked about new points system….
Ferrari with 43 points
McLaren with 21,
Mercedes GP with 18
Red Bull with 16.
Sunday, March 7, 2010
Vacances à Pondicherry [quick travel guide]
In fond memory of the very little good time i had in life!
Day T: After dodging [read surviving] the stardom and celebrity like attention from Men, Women and Animals in Bangalore, me and my Comrade, headed to the UT of Pondicherry on our so claimed 'Brave' Excursion.
Day: T+1: Location: Pondy [5.30 hrs] the two dames set out in the unknown.... combatting a sudden attack of 'tamil', with a "? + Grin" look [no understanding a jack]. Urgent Note to self: Paitence is virtue! Reaching the Hotel was cool.. since we weren't aware of the cardinal rule on travelling around in Pondy, "BARGAIN"... so far so good.
Experiment:
Aim: Travel around in pondy
Procedure: There we were hiring the Hotel travel guy to show us around on day 1.
Result: We showed the guy around... yes, yes, his own city which is a tourist place. [pl. check my picasa to believe this]
Observation: South Indians is that they aren't too familiar to places other than 'how to get to work from home and back' or at the most 'the one place where they " supposedly party" and dude they're more confused than me. [if u know me, u know how bad that is].
EOD: Seen the entire city around in a day.
T+ 2: The Car converts into Auto Rickshaw.. what a ride man, hero of a rickie... btw, before you start pl. bargain om fare... awesome fun....
T+3:Saw around on foot mostly.... there was so much to explore... roamed around a lot and left the town that evening to head back.
Food: Vegetarians pl. carry meals [read my Guju mates pl. carry your 'theplas']. The town doesn't offer much to eat, atleast for the vegetarians.. not many French are gourmets i guess.
Eateries:
1. Baker Street [a French Boulangerie....try out the authentic french breads and cheeses, Meringue cookies, quiches, florentins etc.]
2. Rendevous Cafe [cheap spirits, not so good service, pl. ask the Maitre d' to explain what you choose to order should you not be prepared for unwanted surprises]
3. Le Cafe [good to look at.. nicely made overlooking the pondy beach.... that's it]
4. Le Soliel [looks neat]
5. Most hotels you'd put up in, might be the safest food around.
What to do there:
1.A view to the following if you like photography [located at a distance of 5 mins. walk from each other alongside the pondy beach nr the french quarters and the eatries]: The French War Memorial, Gandhi Memorial, the Light House.
2. Visit the Kaps church [Notre Dame Des Anges]... this is not a well maintained heritage but has a cute French officers' memorial/ tennis court right across.. a total delight.
3. A few temples off the French quarters... [frequented by a lot of crowd...we well did without those]
4. Trip to Plago Paradiso [Paradise Beach]- the beach has a creek on its mouth for padel boats, speed boats, tiny expensive jet ski rides.. a ferry takes you to this regular beach on the other side [we @ mumbai dont treasure beach trips much.....though the creek is a good visit].
5. Auroville- a MUST VISIT, a photogenic place with a spiritual incline. Maitri Mandir [the golden spherical concentration hall] makes the visual attraction.
6. Good amount of shopping in auroville and even around pondy beach [we even patronised this shop called 'padumai'] for good deals remember to master the act of polite bargain till you drop. Shopping could include: Leather clutches/ pouches, paper mache articles, aroma candles, insence sticks, cloth bags, summer ware [woof!! its not even the half of the things i can think of]
All in all, this place is a must visit... pl. be adventures enough to hire a bike or atleast a bi-cycle to see around on your own on day 2. Also, remember to carry sun block [i got back along with a crazy tan]... Frequent buys must include mineral water. Pl. check your calendars before you head there, pl. avoid all religious festivals and so to say spirit absent days.
Day T: After dodging [read surviving] the stardom and celebrity like attention from Men, Women and Animals in Bangalore, me and my Comrade, headed to the UT of Pondicherry on our so claimed 'Brave' Excursion.
Day: T+1: Location: Pondy [5.30 hrs] the two dames set out in the unknown.... combatting a sudden attack of 'tamil', with a "? + Grin" look [no understanding a jack]. Urgent Note to self: Paitence is virtue! Reaching the Hotel was cool.. since we weren't aware of the cardinal rule on travelling around in Pondy, "BARGAIN"... so far so good.
Experiment:
Aim: Travel around in pondy
Procedure: There we were hiring the Hotel travel guy to show us around on day 1.
Result: We showed the guy around... yes, yes, his own city which is a tourist place. [pl. check my picasa to believe this]
Observation: South Indians is that they aren't too familiar to places other than 'how to get to work from home and back' or at the most 'the one place where they " supposedly party" and dude they're more confused than me. [if u know me, u know how bad that is].
EOD: Seen the entire city around in a day.
T+ 2: The Car converts into Auto Rickshaw.. what a ride man, hero of a rickie... btw, before you start pl. bargain om fare... awesome fun....
T+3:Saw around on foot mostly.... there was so much to explore... roamed around a lot and left the town that evening to head back.
Food: Vegetarians pl. carry meals [read my Guju mates pl. carry your 'theplas']. The town doesn't offer much to eat, atleast for the vegetarians.. not many French are gourmets i guess.
Eateries:
1. Baker Street [a French Boulangerie....try out the authentic french breads and cheeses, Meringue cookies, quiches, florentins etc.]
2. Rendevous Cafe [cheap spirits, not so good service, pl. ask the Maitre d' to explain what you choose to order should you not be prepared for unwanted surprises]
3. Le Cafe [good to look at.. nicely made overlooking the pondy beach.... that's it]
4. Le Soliel [looks neat]
5. Most hotels you'd put up in, might be the safest food around.
What to do there:
1.A view to the following if you like photography [located at a distance of 5 mins. walk from each other alongside the pondy beach nr the french quarters and the eatries]: The French War Memorial, Gandhi Memorial, the Light House.
2. Visit the Kaps church [Notre Dame Des Anges]... this is not a well maintained heritage but has a cute French officers' memorial/ tennis court right across.. a total delight.
3. A few temples off the French quarters... [frequented by a lot of crowd...we well did without those]
4. Trip to Plago Paradiso [Paradise Beach]- the beach has a creek on its mouth for padel boats, speed boats, tiny expensive jet ski rides.. a ferry takes you to this regular beach on the other side [we @ mumbai dont treasure beach trips much.....though the creek is a good visit].
5. Auroville- a MUST VISIT, a photogenic place with a spiritual incline. Maitri Mandir [the golden spherical concentration hall] makes the visual attraction.
6. Good amount of shopping in auroville and even around pondy beach [we even patronised this shop called 'padumai'] for good deals remember to master the act of polite bargain till you drop. Shopping could include: Leather clutches/ pouches, paper mache articles, aroma candles, insence sticks, cloth bags, summer ware [woof!! its not even the half of the things i can think of]
All in all, this place is a must visit... pl. be adventures enough to hire a bike or atleast a bi-cycle to see around on your own on day 2. Also, remember to carry sun block [i got back along with a crazy tan]... Frequent buys must include mineral water. Pl. check your calendars before you head there, pl. avoid all religious festivals and so to say spirit absent days.
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Bring it on...….
Reuters report Renault dialogues with M&M to re-look at the JV, mother to the powerful sedan, the Logan which faced dropped sales after a jump start back in ’08. [the Logan deserved much better in spite of the positioning and pricing glitch]
The talks are expected to conclude in a month and a half.
Renault the power engine expert is also reported to want to enter India via their own dealer network to the tune of 15 by first half of 2011 growing to 150 by first half of 2014. [woof!!!!!]
If grapevines are to be believed Renault + Nissan are foreseen to team with Bajaj for a low cost 4 wheeler in addition to the new plant in Chennai in the pipeline [expected investment ~ INR 45 Bln, expected capacity 400,000 units] and Nissan was keener than Renault here.
That doesn’t just bring us good cars but indicates positivity in the global outlook towards the local consumer base. While India Inc. stays young the coming decade and after, the consumer base the Renault India chief predicts could grow to ~ 300% of now.
Hoping that happens soon and we finally see some Clios and Magane on desi roads. [secretly wish and pray to see the Niss. Teana more often- this is notional extension of thots]
With keen interest from other bigwies like Volkswagen doing omnipresent PR with their ‘DAS AUTO’ campaign; Auto expo frenzy by Honda [with its small car], the Electric Hyundai i10, the India market surely comes out shining [and ofcourse Banks die to fund these buys for you].
As the gadi market sees up and secret prayers for stability in oil prices remain unanswered, a fleet of the new makes is so welcomed!
JIC info: Yesterday has seen a ~ 3% up in prices of the French Renault S.A. and their ownership the Jap Nissan Motor Co. and while M&M saw a drop.
The talks are expected to conclude in a month and a half.
Renault the power engine expert is also reported to want to enter India via their own dealer network to the tune of 15 by first half of 2011 growing to 150 by first half of 2014. [woof!!!!!]
If grapevines are to be believed Renault + Nissan are foreseen to team with Bajaj for a low cost 4 wheeler in addition to the new plant in Chennai in the pipeline [expected investment ~ INR 45 Bln, expected capacity 400,000 units] and Nissan was keener than Renault here.
That doesn’t just bring us good cars but indicates positivity in the global outlook towards the local consumer base. While India Inc. stays young the coming decade and after, the consumer base the Renault India chief predicts could grow to ~ 300% of now.
Hoping that happens soon and we finally see some Clios and Magane on desi roads. [secretly wish and pray to see the Niss. Teana more often- this is notional extension of thots]
As the gadi market sees up and secret prayers for stability in oil prices remain unanswered, a fleet of the new makes is so welcomed!
JIC info: Yesterday has seen a ~ 3% up in prices of the French Renault S.A. and their ownership the Jap Nissan Motor Co. and while M&M saw a drop.
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