On Sale till the Shelves are full

A 'developing' country to an 'emerging' market to an nation that is expected to match growth rates of higher end peers in the next 5 years [that comes with a caveat - minus any global melt], India's come a long way.

And that's alongside a highly sentiment driven market [not that any market isn't, but we seem exceptionally touchy]... Evident by what's been happening this year...

• Markets went conservative, worrying big FIs burdened in the US
• That was followed by worrying about the European Debt
• Adding to the list was Chinese Inflation and interest rates [as if our own were not enough]
• The fresh Korean Shelling
• And yes, then the Govt. worries grace a the scams [2G, CW games and now the Home finance fiasco] 

The last few mentions made notable [de]contributions to the markets this time of the year when the west anyway pulls out of the markets to book the year end.

So how do we see it.....
Check our [quite likely] valuation losses each day and worry or 
Stop making the P&L each day and instead see which hopeful names show enough discounts in price that we can buy like it's an end of season sale.

P.S: This one is dedicated to the last few full  of worry conversations with a few folks....

Seeing through the [Dressed] Window

We live in the world where yore not guilty till your caught. With a corporate scams history like us, we don’t have to look overseas for examples. Like, you might think you hold tight a blue-chip name and you like what you see printed in the financials and then one fine sunny day, snap! You wake up to newspaper reports performing a surgery on those very financial [mis] statements, leaving you either furious [read desperate] to quit and book a loss or wait with Buddha’s patience to see where the Government or some other cash rich corporate takes the scrip in sweet time.

The Wall Street seems to be now [finally!] full with such and SEC plans to come down heavily on the ‘window dressed’ financials. The American market regulator recently voted 5-nil on the new proposed amendment to the securities law adding further disclosures to financial statements for the caterpillars [i.e. financial intermediaries] now butterflies for the last two years [i.e. Bank Holding/ Financial Holding Companies].

More about the back drop:

This comes from the US regulators alongside the backdrop of a few failing financial intermediaries causing an industry pressure leading into a pack of falling cards like crash for the industry during the fall of 2008.

Here a few failed ‘dressed’ balance sheets seemed understated on debt just before the Q. end wherein a few billion Dollars showed as sales instead of financing thanks to a repo transaction. Hence the strong looking balance sheet could not come to rescue the firm from bankruptcy.

The Proposal:

These added disclosures aim to create more transparency around ‘short-term’ borrowing arrangements. Under the proposal, all companies would have to reveal in their regulatory filings both the average and maximum amount of debt they had each quarter.

The FIs would be required to provide, in a separately captioned subsection of Management’s Discussion an analysis of financial conditions and operations w.r.t. its short-term borrowings, including both quantitative and qualitative information.

The proposed amendments would be applicable to annual and quarterly reports, proxy or information statements that include financial statements, registration statements under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, and registration statements under the Securities Act of 1933.

This means companies would have to disclose debt more frequently and reveal more information about borrowing arrangements they use. They would also have to inform the investors of business conditions that may make it difficult for them to borrow and why debt levels fluctuated during the financial period reported.

Conforming amendments are also proposed to Form 8-K so that the Form would use the terminology contained in the proposed short-term borrowings disclosure requirement.

SEC has taken this proposal for public views for 60 days considering the feedback, SEC will re-vote to see this proposal through legislation.

Not just that…….

SEC has also gotten even more investor friendly by intending to issue interpretive guidance to investors to better understand the disclosures on liquidity and capital resources, analysis of financial conditions and impact of operations on liquidity and funding risks facing the companies.

Guidelines on implementations have also been planned for the companies to aid them in adhering to the said rules for disclosing debt. With a bottom line aim is to convey that financing arrangements can no more be used to mask financial engineering.

What this really changes:

Regulatory changes more often than not, follow any financial fiasco to build future immunities.

Like all others in the real world, the regulators convey to understand that disclosures to do not eliminate the act, unless penal provisions are attached, but would indeed make it difficult.

This move globally once in vogue, will impact though to limited extent local subsidiaries and will provide investors across the globe with more first hand information, so even more reads for the savvy guys…. ‘Vigilance is the price of liberty’ they say… that explains.

From Economies to Economics……

As RBI talks of the shift to base rate for retail lending, Banks not too surprisingly look for Sunset** until next year.

The Base Rate regime is a noble and internationally used interest regime introduced by RBI for retail lending for banks w.e.f. July 1, 2010… the base rate is arrived vide a set formula that takes into account the cost of lending and cost of operations of the banks vis-à-vis the arbit [so believed] erstwhile BPLR [Benchmark Prime Lending Rate].

BPLR is supposed to be arrived at in a non transparent manner as a lot of determinants were in the unknown to the outsiders, the determinants of the base rate are pseudo public and moreover competitive amongst banking sector players.

Another reason why banks wouldn’t like the base rate is quite a chunk of lending happens at sub-PLR [to an elite group of people/ mostly body corps- ‘aam aadmi’ excluded], but now with the base rate regime, only priority sector lending per monetary policy can borrow at sub-base.

How this affects us: Most of us borrow at BPLR, that would change to base rate, generalizing the outcome, we hope to pay lesser interests that will be more competitive and you’d [almost] know why that’s the number you’re asked to pay.

Downside may be if you’re a part of the ‘sub- PLR’ club or ‘the terms of my loan are too complicated’ club.

Why the sunset….. the banks will have to convince existing @ BPLR borrowers [reality check sub-PLR] to change terms to base rate = loosing/ reshuffling of business for banks. This shift for existing contacts might not come easy and banks’d need time. Plus the rate becomes transparent and cost linked with a capped profit element [Come on…banking is a business and just like any business they are here to make money…. think from the other side of the fence].

Looks like borrowers will continue to borrow [marginally a little less may be to begin with grace à teething issues sunset or not], but all in all, credit will continue to be needed- the predicted growth numbers suggest, that in turn means, need for more deposits i.e. savers in demand…

** P.S:
1. JIC info…. Sunset clauses are restraining/ conditional/ limiting clauses inserted to temporarily alter the applicability of a stat.
2. Exactly when it is thought I’d write about travel this is what i come up with [is why this is called random thots]

May I know your good ‘Number’ Please……. [huh??!]

Here’s new on ‘personnel’ related infra, its called ‘Aadhaar’- a project by UIDAI [Unique Identification Authority of India], UIDAI is a office setup under the planning commission.

‘Aadhaar’ is a project to allot a 12 digit Unique Identification Numbers to all citizens in India. Here’s more on it:

Why the Numbers:
We are a very unique nation in more than many ways, including our problems. There are two major themes leading to why there is a dire need for a clear, precise and transparent identification system:

1. To be able to identify the actual people for whom the Govt. designs socialistic schemes [be it education, public distribution system, commercial subsidies or any of the likes] vis-à-vis who and how much of dissemination actually reaches.

•  Actual identification of the poor [Below Poverty Line- BPL] for any Government initiatives i.e.  identification of TA [Target Audience - for non savvy folks].
• Identity of this kinds helps TA in many ways, most of these people lack proper identity documents refraining to be able to avail basics like cell phone connections, access to banking network, back ground checks for employment, rationing entitlements to name a few.
• To check ‘pilferage’ from the socialist schemes [these very obviously happen] you see the tax payers pay for such schemes and hence it becomes necessary to identify who actually reaps those benefits [actual TA or the distribution machinery itself or someone who’s managed to ‘con’ the distribution machinery – thanks to invention of under table processes for procuring identity documents ]

2. To restrict entry in/ access to country’s stream for people with illegitimate backdrops/ purposes
• Irony of the situation here is at the time when people BPL find it agonizing to obtain and produce proof on their genuine identity [read existence] we have a whole lot of people with convenient access to procure identity documents [a lot of ‘media sting operations’ have proven this]. So your native domestic help might struggle but a sleeping cell doesn’t.

Commerce behind this:
• Budget Allocation for the project is a whooping INR 19 Billion
• Though the projects seems in ‘bidding’ stages, this means serious business to IT and Connectivity service providers- once the bids open a lot of ‘order books’ will call your attention.
• Completion [though phased] will optimistically mean more savings flowing back into the economy increasing retail banking base and hopefully tax payers base as well.

Time-lines:
Project completion target is August 2015 for all 600 mn IDs to be issued, dissemination of the first set starts somewhere between August 2010 and Feb 2011.

Kudos, How this would do us good:
• A lot of developed countries entitle ‘social security’ based on this model
• People BPL don’t such face lack of infrastructure but also a double whammy of relatively expensive access to basic amenities/ distribution, this is far fletched effect of ‘pilferage’, so subsidized infra is moved out of the public distribution and moves into the blacks and is sold higher than market prices, this is not just ration, it holds good for reserved quotas for education/ travel, industrial/ agricultural subsidies and Credits.
• Since we check pilferage, we check corruption and to top it up we identify people we can not track as non-citizens.

Lows:
Well the thought is noble and some noble thoughts do really sail through to reality…..

Referring to the other groups of the likes of: the MAPIN fiasco years ago, PAN holders [i.e. identified tax paying population] vis-à-vis people who actually make money in the land, KYCs and how far they get, Ration cards issued pitched against rationing proceeds or against the grey/ black market.

Coming from a country that survives on crisis management and crisis managers being looked upto, there’s little too early to talk about the virtues of planning and courage to plot plans vis-à-vis execution on the same plane. Despite that India’s growth and potential is recognized globe over and there seems no stopping the Asian giant where it comes to Infra development either.

Moreover, Govt’s initiative increased spending towards infrastructure development shows commitment. Hoping ‘Aadhaar’ lives up on the execution front as well, we’ll soon see ourselves quoting our numbers.

Catch 22

RBI has not been much appraised off late by all and sundry about its role in capping inflation [let’s leave curbing it alone for a while], making yesterday a little cautious.

A 25 bps hike each in the short-term lending and borrowing rates and CRR [now 6%] to suck out about $ 2.5 Bn liquidity but cautiously not enough to corner borrowing assuring growth impetus for the industry. This seemed in line with street’s expectation showing a rather flatish response [most were happy going by flat is higher than a dip]. Further, 25 bps hike also made for repo [now 5.25%] and rev. repo [3.75%] and bank rate remains the same 6%.

As for prospects, the Central Bank foresees growth projections at an optimistic 8% for the f.y. and 2010 GDP growth per expectation shows between 7.2 to 7.5% and inflation expectations reach 5.5% for the yr and medium term at 3%.

All said and done, though conservative the policy looks good per dilemma between RBI’s inflationary expectations vis-à-vis those of the MoF. With demand building up and supply’s under pressure the 25 bps hike looks welcomed but against the inflation story a conservative 50 bps looked in the making- catch 22 indeed......now you know where from Hamlet got the "to be or not to be is the question".

When SEBI gets Savvy

Not just the investors but the markets at large appreciate SEBI as it came up with a few most rational reg moves on the disclosures and time-lines front....

Listed Companies now need to disclose Quarterly results within 45 days of end of a quarter as against anything upto 60 days or even for- ever that a lot of Companies took to come up with Quarterly numbers.

Further, 45 days for as at Half year end B/S and bi-annual Cash flows to be out for the benefit of investors' judgements alongwith annual audited financials to be out within 60 days of yr end.

The regime only gets better with IPOs to be listed with in 12 days as against the earlier 22 from the date of close of the offer to mitigate market fluctuations risks for bidders.

So also for MFs, NFO duration reduced to half and only for 15 days for Schemes to re-open for on- going transactions.

Issures [Cos and Fund Houses] have to provide ASBA facility compulsorily to QIBs as well.

While the new improved time-lines for disclosures would keep investors best informed to take better risks adjusted calls, the offerings related eager moves suit the liquidity of investors better.

SEBI off-late seems to gotten v. savvy  [ read ever more sensitive] towards investors' interests.... for good, so far.

As Q4 Ends…..

Extending the story QoQ, positivity of people towards Q4 numbers and 2010 projections marginal sees an increase and all seem ears hopeful of a good earnings cycle despite a slow run upwards globally and inflationary pressures.

Indicators look green with global recovery and rising sales…. Hopes are too see a clearer picture vis-à-vis past few quarters where numbers carried a taint of miser expenditures.

These views show consensus across onlookers for commodities and consumer durables, specially the auto space. As for services except IT that recovers demand and sees newer/ smaller players, the picture looks bleak with telecom getting competitive and volatile by the day in spite of consistent growth in sales. Rising infra and realty activities boosts construction space to encourage cements to see increasing demand alongwith base metals.

The ambit that still worries could be banking with rising NPAs and low credit take-off despite recovery and FMCGs getting competitive amidst inflation steeps.

All in all an optimistic quarter end with hopfully even more optimistic numbers...

Dramatic Antonyms

When Going gets tough, the Fed Gets going …It been over a year and a half since all have been looking out for [some are watching out for] the Fed Res to bring in the new regulatory regime looking to rescue the US economy and the lot of others that the US effects, from major collapses extending the ‘too big to fail’ notion.

Senator Dodd’s new proposal got to the table a bill to empower Fed Res over all major FIs vis-à-vis just banks, against which oversight assets of about $50 billion will be delegated from Fed Res to other federal agencies. And the US President’s office would name the Fed Res President…. [think jazz like Independence of a regulating agency or Non politicizing them?.... too bad, American law makers think otherwise, under the pretext that tax payers don’t end up funding bail outs]. FYI… the Dodd Bill is widely opposed by both the Treasury and Industry for obvious reasons.

While this happens in the Yankee land, in India just a few years ago oversight of a lot of businesses for FI which rested in the Central Bank moved to the Market Regulator. Down stream flow to the Dodd bill.
Instance 2, another proposed bill to curb Prop trading by FHCs, thank fully yet a bill and so far not feasible was last heard about this. This one again, wasn’t too welcomed by the Industry and was seen as a defensive move.

About the same time, our side of the globe, a lot of firms evaluate more active prop trading that has a financially lucrative taint and authorities don’t mind.

Moral of the story, the minds at opposite sides of the globe think opposite, owing to either fundamental differences in the kind of economies that the two of these are…. or is it basic difference in their standing on the growth/ development curve. It continues to be you go north I go south story.

High on Speed.... Higher on Drama

Last evening marked a more eventful than expected beginning to this Formula 1 season.

 

The Bahrain Grand Prix being the onset of this year's World Championship turned out to mark numerous must watch moments.... for the ones who lacked time... Thank me...

 

• The God of F1, Schumacher made a come back from his 3 year old semi-retirement with Mercedes Benz GP Petronas.
• The Track was more complex with 8 new corners added reducing the laps to 49 [circuit length ~ 6.29 km and race distance ~ 308.41 km].
• And the Much talked about new points system….

The race started with Vettel [Red Bull] at the Pole Position. Followed by Ferrari and Mc Lauren.

 

The drama on the track begin as soon as turn 1 of Lap 1 when Webber’s [Red Bull] engine emitted clouds spinning Kubica [Renault] and Sutil [Force India] out of the points spots.

 

If that was not enough, Lap 2: Chandhok [HRT] crashed out of the race. Followed by BMW Sauber not making it to the end alongwith Debutants Glock and Di Grassi [Virgin] grace a` mechanical failures. The list continued with Petrov [Renault] facing a suspension problem which was detected during tyre stop at Lap 13.

 

Vettel starting at pole maintained an unbeatable lead till lap 34 going to dust that late owing to a spark plug failure ,this was when the face of the race changed with F. Alonso [started 2nd on the grid] finally overtaking Red Bull with fastest lap record ~ 1 min 58 secs followed by team mate Massa [started 3rd on the grid] following suit and finally Hamilton [started 4th] making a third place finish for Mc Lauren.

 

Vettle till lap 49 despite machine’s give up maintained his position 4 against Roseburg [Merc] finishing 5th [started 5] and Schumi finishing 6 [started 7th].

 

The final score Board showed:
Ferrari with 43 points
McLaren with 21,
Mercedes GP with 18
Red Bull with 16.

 

As for Racers: Alonso: 25 points, Massa: 18, Hamilton: 15, Vettel: 12, Rosberg: 10 and Schumacher: 8.

 

After the dramatic Bahrain GP, eyes are set already southwards for the Aussie GP [March 26-28].

 

Vacances à Pondicherry [quick travel guide]

In fond memory of the very little good time i had in life!

Day T: After dodging [read surviving] the stardom and celebrity like attention from Men, Women and Animals in Bangalore, me and my Comrade, headed to the UT of Pondicherry on our so claimed 'Brave' Excursion.

Day: T+1: Location: Pondy [5.30 hrs] the two dames set out in the unknown.... combatting a sudden attack of 'tamil', with a "? + Grin" look [no understanding a jack]. Urgent Note to self: Paitence is virtue! Reaching the Hotel was cool.. since we weren't aware of the cardinal rule on travelling around in Pondy, "BARGAIN"... so far so good.

Experiment:
Aim: Travel around in pondy
Procedure: There we were hiring the Hotel travel guy to show us around on day 1.
Result: We showed the guy around... yes, yes, his own city which is a tourist place. [pl. check my picasa to believe this]
Observation:  South Indians is that they aren't too familiar to places other than 'how to get to work from home and back' or at the most 'the one place where they " supposedly party" and dude they're more confused than me. [if u know me, u know how bad that is].

EOD: Seen the entire city around in a day.

T+ 2: The Car converts into Auto Rickshaw.. what a ride man, hero of a rickie... btw, before you start pl. bargain om fare... awesome fun....

T+3:Saw around on foot mostly.... there was so much to explore... roamed around a lot and left the town that evening to head back.

Food: Vegetarians pl. carry meals [read  my Guju mates pl. carry your 'theplas']. The town doesn't offer much to eat, atleast for the vegetarians.. not many French  are gourmets i guess.

Eateries:
1. Baker Street [a French Boulangerie....try out the authentic french breads and cheeses, Meringue cookies, quiches, florentins etc.]
2. Rendevous Cafe [cheap spirits, not so good service, pl. ask the Maitre d' to explain what you choose to order should you not be prepared for unwanted surprises]
3. Le Cafe [good to look at.. nicely made overlooking the pondy beach.... that's it]
4. Le Soliel [looks neat]
5. Most hotels you'd put up in, might be the safest food around.

What to do there:
1.A view to the following if you like photography [located at a distance of 5 mins. walk from each other alongside the pondy beach nr the french quarters and the eatries]: The French War Memorial, Gandhi Memorial, the Light House.
2. Visit the Kaps church [Notre Dame Des Anges]... this is not a well maintained heritage but has a cute  French officers' memorial/ tennis court right across.. a total delight.
3. A few temples off the French quarters... [frequented by a lot of crowd...we well did without those]
4. Trip to Plago Paradiso [Paradise Beach]- the beach has a creek on its mouth for padel boats, speed boats, tiny expensive jet ski rides.. a ferry takes you to this regular beach on the other side [we @ mumbai dont treasure beach trips much.....though the creek is a good visit].
5. Auroville- a MUST VISIT, a photogenic place with a spiritual incline.  Maitri Mandir [the golden spherical concentration hall] makes the visual attraction.
6. Good amount of shopping in auroville and even around pondy beach [we even patronised this shop called 'padumai'] for good deals remember to master the act of polite bargain till you drop. Shopping could include: Leather clutches/ pouches, paper mache articles, aroma candles, insence sticks, cloth bags, summer ware [woof!! its not even the half of the things i can think of]

All in all, this place is a must visit... pl. be adventures enough to hire a bike or atleast a bi-cycle to see around on your own on day 2. Also, remember to carry sun block [i got back along with a crazy tan]... Frequent buys must include mineral water. Pl. check your calendars before you head there, pl. avoid all religious festivals and so to say spirit absent days.

Bring it on...….

Reuters report Renault dialogues with M&M to re-look at the JV, mother to the powerful sedan, the Logan which faced dropped sales after a jump start back in ’08. [the Logan deserved much better in spite of the positioning and pricing glitch]
The talks are expected to conclude in a month and a half.

Renault the power engine expert is also reported to want to enter India via their own dealer network to the tune of 15 by first half of 2011 growing to 150 by first half of 2014. [woof!!!!!]

If grapevines are to be believed Renault + Nissan are foreseen to team with Bajaj for a low cost 4 wheeler in addition to the new plant in Chennai in the pipeline [expected investment ~ INR 45 Bln, expected capacity 400,000 units] and Nissan was keener than Renault here.

That doesn’t just bring us good cars but indicates positivity in the global outlook towards the local consumer base. While India Inc. stays young the coming decade and after, the consumer base the Renault India chief predicts could grow to ~ 300% of now.

Hoping that happens soon and we finally see some Clios and Magane on desi roads. [secretly wish and pray to see the Niss. Teana more often- this is notional extension of thots]

With keen interest from other bigwies like Volkswagen doing omnipresent PR with their ‘DAS AUTO’ campaign; Auto expo frenzy by Honda [with its small car], the Electric Hyundai i10, the India market surely comes out shining [and ofcourse Banks die to fund these buys for you].

As the gadi market sees up and secret prayers for stability in oil prices remain unanswered, a fleet of the new makes is so welcomed!

JIC info: Yesterday has seen a ~ 3% up in prices of the French Renault S.A. and their ownership the Jap Nissan Motor Co. and while M&M saw a drop.

Soros on Gold…… But is India different??

G. Soros the legend that he is puts his finger on gold [not that he lacked the much proven Midas touch anyway]. Views say Gold in due for a fall…. although, the world can’t see that happen till the markets own handsome liquidity and/or inflations at refuel.

While this in Tout Le Monde, how do we look locally…..?
• Jan 29 sees our dear RBI hiking the interest rate [CRR up 75 bps- which more than market expectations] i.e. supply of money reduces beyond anticipation.
• The above is also supposed to curb inflation [NO giggling please- not that most see that happen].
• So the asset bubble that the gold is seen as, the above should lead to break.

Why that ain’t happening in India:
• We have enormous fantasy for the yellow metal [read Jewellery….. ask your women], this translates into constant demand.
• Indians don’t buy gold as investments; they buy them as ‘personal assets’ i.e. a chunk of household savings are mobilised in this direction.
• Both the above make things very hopeful for the seller to see a multiplier in rise of prices and divider for fall… so it’s a rise and rise story atleast in the short term.

So what do we do now…… continue buying either ways. Needless to mention watch out for marginal falls and time your buy accordingly. A drastic fall or the bubble break ain’t happening in our land any soon.

Yes, Mr. President!!

This happened when the Nobel peace winning President hinted proposed [tough] limits [if not a ban] on trading activities by FHCs.

A Brief: FHC [Financial Holding Companies] are Banks designated by the US Fed Res. allowed to do a few more business than mere Banks. FHCs have an access to Fed borrowing window against which the Federal Reserve becomes a Regulator for such entities.

Last fall witnessed a few bigwie FIs in the US being designated as FHCs owing to the economic downturn to the Securities businesses [read spreading to the entire US economy = most of the world]. While these new FHCs celebrate [or otherwise] their anniversary, the Presidential office announced they might  shortly not be  trading prop + not even sponsor PE and Hedge funds = STUNTED/ NO GROWTH.

World over this is seen as a very defensive and arbit move on Government’s part to attempt cutting down of activity as against actually building a robust risk regulating mechanism.

While this happens far in the US, we in India consequently saw a 112 bps fall in the Sensex end of last week and recovering from a 100 fall to ~ 40 bps fall as this post was published, ofcourse the speculation over Jan 29 from RBI also contributed to this, leading to a lot of banking stocks falling well over 100 bps [time to buy for a long term view]

Views from Regulators get increasingly defensive not just in the US even locally, as lot actually expect interest rate hike as the Cen. Bank's answer to inflation and even graver supply side issues that we as an economy face uniquely as compared other EMs.

Follows suit is SEBI with rather futuristic plans for the Investment Management Industry each new day. These are great plans and noble thots but are viewed as ‘jaw dropping to the floor’ moves in the current scenario with the industry not even skimming the markets leave alone penetrating in terms of savings mobilizations in about 2 formal decades of existance.

Anyways, there's not too much we can do about Regulators but say YES and follow!! Adieu :( !

HAITI - yet again

Yet Another Natural Disaster [Earthquake @ 7 on the Ritcher's scale, abt 200 yrs worst, with death toll ~ 500,000] makes The Republic of Haiti [~'Ayiti'] visible on world's focal map... here's some trivia......


Haiti and World Topography:
The Republic of Haiti is a French speaking Carribean country. Sharing borders with Cuba and Dominican Republic. The Peninsula is surrounded by Atalntic Ocean on one side and Carribean Sea on two.

Haiti and World History:
Haiti is splended with inspiring independence tales being the first independent nation in Lat-Am. The only colony with a with a successful slave rebel, other rebels against the Polish and French,US occupancy and Dictatorship. The country not owns rich cultural heritage, the history justifies the national motto of 'unity'.

Haiti and Disaster Map:
4 Tropical Hurricanes [2008]
Killer storms in 2005 and 2004
Floods in 2007, 2006, 2003 (twice) and 2002

Reasons known to be a deadly combination of poverty, the topography of the country, socio-economic problems, close to 'zero' building standards/ disaster management/ environmental standards and poverty again.

Additonally, Haiti suffers from massive social deprivation and a high HIV/AIDS rate [~ 4.5 percent of the population] coupled with life expectancy of just ~52 years and scarce job scene.

Haiti and World Economics:

GDP: USD 11.57 Bln [nominal: 6.9 bln]
PCI: USD 1317 [nominal: 790]
making Haiti the poorest country in the western hemisphere.

World Bank sources that per capita income is considerably less than one-tenth the regional average. Half the population survives on subsistence agriculture and remittances from relatives working in the US and EU [flip side retaining HR for local infrastructural development is a 'to be or not to be' situation dropping disaster management way down government's priority list].


Lessons Haiti has taught us:
Say yes to:
1.   Technology to detect early warning signals to disasters make new governmental focus [also a must in India though better we're not too far here]
2.   Norms for building structures providing scope as disaster getaways.

Say no to:
1.  Deforestation [in light of constantly forests shrinking to green zones and green zones shrinking to 'parks', its wake up time]
2.  Concentrated population ['urbanisation' due to concentration of opportunites ---> densified population ----> weak disaster management performance]


Disaster Aid:
1. TPS:
US to grant Haitians the Temporary protected status apart from the much talked about financial aid. [TPS is an American provision that grants temporary protection from deportation to nationals of a country in which environmental or political events have occurred which make it temporarily unsafe to deport them or when armed conflict poses a serious threat to public safety.]

2. Red cross  - IFRC is all over the place for non- governmental disaster aid operation and UN leaves no stone unturned in aid of and on behalf of member nations.

3.   For helps you'd like to extend: [each drop makes the ocean]

The Haitian Embassy : Vellard View, Pedder Road, Mumbai- 400026. Telephone : (+91-22) 24973844 Faximile : (+91-22) 26326604

Aal izz 'Well'

While all of us get our best behaved selves on the shelf for the most crucial time of the year, the Wells Fargo Bank deprives CEO of the annual cash bonus [no, no sacrifice], this is for a whooping about $10 million in stock [disclosed in a securities filing clarified to be a target and could rise or fall based on the bank's performance] as an incentive to stay at the bank amid ‘heavy recruiting’ by rivals. Half the tune was also directed towards 3 other top execs, though locked for 3 years and forfeiting for the ones who bid goodbye sooner. FYI, stock price of the Bank have fallen about 8% this year.

Please don’t expect this to be about the heated debate since the financial crisis for the American banks that received government assistance during the economic downturn.

While most of WF’s “Colonial Cousins” here in India are still a quarter away for their employees to be ‘appreciated’, the scene looks favorable at least cues industry dynamics. Yes, despite, Credit Growth picking up, interest rates seem likely to remain stable per views from RBI’s Half-brother.

While the lending rates might move upwards depending on verdict from Country’s the Central Bank on Jan 29 considering inflationary pressures and a few bps CRR hikes very well expected, the sector still expects to see rise in lending volumes as the world economy revives with a positive outlooks towards India and NPA’s managed well YTD.

Although Horizon sees a need to adopt stronger fiscal steps than merely moderating liquidity stimulus to tackle inflation and correct supply side liquidity issues, Banks in India are a happy place [at least for the Engineer-MBAs stationed with them].

Disclaimer: Author does not [read: lacks enough liquidity to] hold any personal positions in any of the names in the said sector.

P.S: Excuse above as an occupational hazard!