Sunday, January 31, 2010

Soros on Gold…… But is India different??

G. Soros the legend that he is puts his finger on gold [not that he lacked the much proven Midas touch anyway]. Views say Gold in due for a fall…. although, the world can’t see that happen till the markets own handsome liquidity and/or inflations at refuel.

While this in Tout Le Monde, how do we look locally…..?
• Jan 29 sees our dear RBI hiking the interest rate [CRR up 75 bps- which more than market expectations] i.e. supply of money reduces beyond anticipation.
• The above is also supposed to curb inflation [NO giggling please- not that most see that happen].
• So the asset bubble that the gold is seen as, the above should lead to break.

Why that ain’t happening in India:
• We have enormous fantasy for the yellow metal [read Jewellery….. ask your women], this translates into constant demand.
• Indians don’t buy gold as investments; they buy them as ‘personal assets’ i.e. a chunk of household savings are mobilised in this direction.
• Both the above make things very hopeful for the seller to see a multiplier in rise of prices and divider for fall… so it’s a rise and rise story atleast in the short term.

So what do we do now…… continue buying either ways. Needless to mention watch out for marginal falls and time your buy accordingly. A drastic fall or the bubble break ain’t happening in our land any soon.